Market update · 25 October 2026
Fed Meeting October 2026: Time in IST, Hold or Hike?
Fed meeting: decision Wed 28 Oct at 23:30 IST (22:00 UAE, 19:00 Nigeria). A hold is expected, a December hike priced. What it means for USD, gold and INR.
The Fed announces its October decision on Wednesday 28 October at 2:00 p.m. New York time: 18:00 UTC, 23:30 IST, 22:00 in the UAE and 19:00 in Nigeria. Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference usually follows 30 minutes later. In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold at 3.75–4.00%, and all 100 expect a December hike.
What time is the Fed decision in IST, UAE and Nigeria?
The statement lands at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The US stays on summer time until Sunday 1 November, so this is how it converts:
- Decision: Wednesday 28 October, 18:00 UTC. That is 23:30 IST, 22:00 GST (UAE) and 19:00 WAT (Nigeria).
- Press conference: Wednesday 28 October, 18:30 UTC. That is 00:00 IST on Thursday 29 October, 22:30 GST and 19:30 WAT.
This is not a "dot plot" meeting. The Fed's meeting calendar shows the next new projections at the meeting on Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December. Watch the clocks, too. UK clocks went back today, Sunday 25 October, and US clocks go back on Sunday 1 November. After that, US data lands one hour later in India, the UAE and Nigeria. Our economic calendar shows every release in your own time zone.
Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?
Almost nobody expects it this week.
- 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll taken Friday 16 to Tuesday 20 October expect a hold (Reuters via Kitco).
- Futures put the chance of an October hike at about 10%, according to CME data cited by Newsquawk on Friday 23 October.
The Fed last moved on Wednesday 16 September, when it raised rates by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00% in a 12–0 vote. Its statement said: "Inflation remains elevated" (Fed). US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, or 2.6% without food and energy. Energy alone was up 20.4% (BLS). That is the oil shock showing up in the data.
What would a hold mean, and what would a December hike mean?
A hold on Wednesday keeps the range at 3.75–4.00% and the interest the Fed pays on bank reserves at 3.90% (implementation note). The UAE's base rate is anchored to that reserve rate, and the CBUAE matched the Fed's September hike the same day (CBUAE). So a Fed hold would normally leave the UAE at 3.90% too. The market will focus on the wording: does the Fed keep December on the table?
A December hike would be decided on Wednesday 9 December at 19:00 UTC, which is 00:30 IST on Thursday 10 December. Traders priced an 81% chance on Friday, according to LSEG data cited in a market report on AsiaOne. It would take the range to 4.00–4.25%, which is where nearly 60% of the Reuters poll respondents see rates peaking. Pimco expects that path: hold now, hike in December (Newsquawk).
The catch: those odds move. Traders trimmed their hike bets after Thursday's sell-off in AI stocks (AsiaOne). US jobs data on Friday 6 November and inflation data on Tuesday 10 November could move them again.
What moves when the Fed decides: USD, gold and USD/INR?
The dollar. The dollar index was at 101.82 late on Friday (AsiaOne). The Fed's broader trade-weighted index hit 122.00 on Wednesday 14 October, its 2026 high in FRED's data. In June, Reuters reported that "Fed hike bets boost dollar" (Kitco). If the Fed sounds firm about December, that June pattern is the one to watch for. If it sounds unsure, the reverse is the risk.
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Gold. About $3,997 an ounce at the weekend (gold-api.com). It fell 3.6% last week, its worst week since June, as a December hike stayed about 80% priced (Rallies.ai). Gold pays no interest, so higher rates raise the cost of holding it.
USD/INR. 94.94 on Friday, using the RBI's reference rate. Bloomberg reported on Thursday 8 October that surging US bond yields make Indian assets less attractive, which weighs on the rupee (ThePrint). The US 10-year yield was 5.00% on Friday (US Treasury). The RBI's response is in USD to INR: why the rupee is near its record low.
The ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England all decide within days of the Fed. See our central-bank super week guide.
How should a beginner prepare for the Fed decision?
Spreads widen and stop-losses can slip in the first minutes after a Fed statement. That is when small accounts get hurt most. Before Wednesday:
- Write down the time in your zone: 23:30 IST, 22:00 UAE, 19:00 Nigeria.
- Decide the most you are willing to lose, in money. Then size the trade from that number with the position size calculator. Smaller than usual is the safe default.
- Check your margin with the margin calculator. A wider spread can tip a thin account into a margin call.
- If you can't answer steps 1 to 3, skip this one. The next Fed decision is six weeks away.
- In India, the legal route is the currency pairs listed on NSE, BSE or MSE, through a SEBI-registered broker. Offshore platforms are not.
What are the key numbers?
- Fed funds range: 3.75–4.00% after a 12–0 hike on Wednesday 16 September (Fed).
- Interest on reserves: 3.90%. UAE base rate: 3.90% (CBUAE).
- US inflation, September: 3.7%, core 2.6% (BLS).
- Reuters poll: 94 of 100 see a hold now, all 100 see a December hike (Kitco).
- December hike odds: 81% (LSEG data, via AsiaOne).
- Gold about $3,997, USD/INR 94.94, US 10-year yield 5.00% (sources above).
If spreads, margin and position size still feel fuzzy, our beginner workbook covers them in 25 short lessons with exercises. They are the lessons most beginners skip, then pay for. It is free until Wednesday 11 November, then $4.99.
What else are people asking?
What time is the Fed meeting today in IST?
The meeting runs on Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October. The decision is at 23:30 IST on Wednesday, and the press conference starts at midnight.
Will the Fed hike interest rates?
Not this week, if the Reuters poll is right. December is different: all 100 economists polled expect a quarter-point hike, and markets priced 81% on Friday. Neither is certain.
When is the December Fed meeting?
Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December. The decision is at 2:00 p.m. New York time on Wednesday 9 December: 19:00 UTC, 00:30 IST on Thursday 10 December, 23:00 in the UAE and 20:00 in Nigeria. New projections come with it.
How does a Fed rate hike affect gold?
Gold pays no interest, so higher US rates make it costlier to hold. This year, rising hike bets have usually come with a firmer dollar and weaker gold, as in June and again last week. War headlines can override that, so treat it as a tendency, not a rule.
Not advice. This is general education from an introducing-broker desk, not personalised investment advice. Leveraged trading carries a high risk of loss. Read the full disclosures.
